WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT: FLOOD OUTLOOK
ISSUED January 9, 2020 @ 2:00PM
Flood Potential: Low
The Ganaraska Region Conservation Authority advises that a messy winter storm is tracking into the region with potential for heavy rainfall on Saturday. Temperatures will warm up for the next couple of days causing most of the existing snowpack to melt. Weather forecasts are indicating potential rainfall accumulations of 30 to 60mm before the system moves out on Sunday.
Stream flows in the Ganaraska Region are at normal levels for this time of year and there is very little ice cover in stream channels indicating a low risk of ice jams. However, melting snow combined with light rain on Friday will cause soils to become saturated, which will reduce their ability to soak up the rain on Saturday. The forecasted rainfall combined with melting snow will cause all streams, ponds and ditches to experience high water levels and flows. A period of freezing rain is possible on Saturday night followed by snow as the temperatures drop below freezing on Sunday.
While no flooding is anticipated, high flows at this time of year can be dangerous. Slippery stream banks and fast flowing, cold water will create hazardous conditions around all bodies of water. As a result, local streams and rivers may become dangerous, especially in the vicinity of culverts and bridges. In addition, any ice covered ponds or wetlands should be avoided due to thinning or unstable ice conditions. Children should be warned to stay away from all watercourses and shorelines.
This Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect through Monday, January 13th, 2020. Conservation Authority staff will continue to monitor watershed conditions and provide updates as necessary. Should you have any questions or wish to report flooding, please contact the following GRCA staff at 905-885-8173.
Mike Smith Cory Harris, P.Eng.
Flood Operations Officer Flood Warning Coordinator
Note: A Watershed Condition Statement for Flood Outlook is issued as early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
No flood conditions exist.
Level 1 - Water Safety:
High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors that could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
Level 1 - Flood Outlook:
Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
Level 2 - Flood Watch:
Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
Level 3 - Flood Warning:
Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific water courses or municipalities.