WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT: FLOOD OUTLOOK
Flood Potential: Low
April 18, 2019 9:30AM
The Ganaraska Region Conservation Authority advises that a series of low pressure systems are set to bring multiple days of rain to Southern Ontario. Melting snowpacks in the Northern parts of the Trent River watershed combined with rainfall will cause Rice Lake to rise for several days, while local streams will continue to rise and fall in response to periods of rainfall over the long weekend.
Ground conditions in the Ganaraska Region are generally wet from previous rain storms and will have limited capacity to absorb the forecasted rainfall. Local streams have receded since last weekend but are still slightly elevated.
Rain is expected to begin this evening and continue with the heaviest downpours occurring tomorrow. A few showers are also possible on Saturday, before the system moves out of the area. Total rainfall amounts of 35 to 50mm are forecast for the Ganaraska Region, however higher amounts in excess of 60mm are possible in the headwaters of the Trent River system.
As a result, water levels and flows in local streams will be higher than normal as the runoff makes its way downstream to Lake Ontario. With the heaviest rainfall on Friday, it is expected that streams will peak later on Friday and begin to recede overnight. Under these conditions, high flows and slippery stream banks will create dangerous conditions around streams, ponds and ditches. Please warn children in your care of these hazards and avoid watercourses as much as possible.
The large amount of moisture entering the Trent River system from snowmelt and rainfall will cause tributaries such as the Gull and Burnt Rivers and the Kawartha Lakes to rise accordingly. This large amount of runoff will make its way from the Kawarthas and into Rice Lake through the Otonabee River over the next week or two. A close watch on the rate of rise, inflows from the Otonabee River and outflows via the Trent River is recommended. Minor shoreline flooding is possible in the coming days/weeks.
This Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect through Sunday, April 21st, 2019. Conservation Authority staff will continue to monitor watershed conditions and provide updates as necessary. Should you have any questions or wish to report flooding, please contact the following GRCA staff at 905-885-8173.
Flood Operations Officer
Note: A Watershed Condition Statement for Flood Outlook is issued as early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
No flood conditions exist.
Level 1 - Water Safety:
High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors that could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
Level 1 - Flood Outlook:
Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
Level 2 - Flood Watch:
Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
Level 3 - Flood Warning:
Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific water courses or municipalities.